Out with the old, and in with the new. Obama won the US Election and became the first African-American to hold the most powerful office in the United States and the world. And with the change in administration, it necessarily entails changes in the policies by the new president-elect. This analysis deals with the possible implications of an Obama Presidency to the relation of the country that we, Filipinos, hold with so much esteem.
With a Democrat White House, we can see the traditional democratic policies in place, such as social services (education, health care and labor rights), civil liberties, economic intervention, progressive taxation and international cooperation, as opposed to the traditional Republican priorities on defense, conservative views, laissez faire, tax cuts on business and foreign interventionism. This paradigm shift would primarily affect American domestic policies and its international commitments, particularly the its principal participation in the Iraq War. This change would produce significant ramifications to other countries as well, especially that the United States is currently in an economic downturn, gravely comparable to the Great Depression of the 1930's.
Thus, going to the meat of the issue, how will a Democrat President affect The Philippines? Firstly, our country is not a newbie with regard to Democratic policies. As history would show, Democrats were our supporter numero uno since the American occupation of our country. The Democrats in the U.S. Capitol argued against the American conquest of the Philippines in the aftermath of the Spanish-American War. Republican President William McKinley was only able to convince the Democrats to ratify his war acts as the benevolent assimilation of the Philippines, to train them in the art of self-government, on the condition that independence shall be subsequently given to our country. It was a Democrat Congressman, William Atkinson Jones that authored the Philippine Autonomy Act of 1916, otherwise known as the Jones Law, that provided the framework for self-government and promised us ultimate independence, and signed by President Woodrow Wilson, also a Democrat. Almost 20 years after, 2 Democrats in the person of Maryland Senator Milliard E. Tydings and Alabama Representative John McDuffie, authored the Philippine Independence Act of 1934, more commonly known as the Tydings-McDuffie Law, that created the Commonwealth of the Philippines. It was yet another Democrat President, Franklin D. Roosevelt who signed the said act, which provided for self-government of the country and for Filipino independence after a period of ten years. Our country's return to independence in 1946 was seen over by a Democrat, President Harry S. Truman. Democrats in the White House (i.e. Presidents John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter and latest was Bill Clinton) have always maintained equally good and harmonious relations with the Philippines. Democrats in the U.S. Congress have always supported measures that benefit the Philippine cause, from economic aid to veterans concerns to international support. In general, Democrats are traditionally Filipino friends in the United States.
And secondly, as it would show, most of President-elect Obama's policies revolve around solving the domestic woes of the United States. Thus, even if he was popularly elected because of the American weariness on the Iraq War, social welfare programs remain at the centerpoint of his agenda. He aims at providing universal health care. He favors higher federal funding for the educational system, invest in early childhood education and accessibility of college education for all Americans. He aims to provide tax cuts to millions of low and middle income families. He favors increasing the minimum wage. He vows to create more jobs. He advocates alternative sources of energy to reduce American consumption of foreign oil. He supports a comprehensive immigration reform legislation. Therefore, on the overall, he has consistently advocated programs that would be beneficial to the Americans, particularly in this difficult times.
Thus, with that in mind, what then would an Obama White House offer a Filipino?
With the economy at the forefront and defense on the sidelines, our more prosperous northern neighbors (e.g. Japan and South Korea) would be the United States primary partners. Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand have the same level of economic cooperation that the Philippines have with the United States. Indonesia and Vietnam are also major trading partners of the US. And more importantly, China and India, the second and third largest economy in the world respectively, figure prominently in Barack Obama's speeches. The European Union is still a major player in the world and Obama is keen on rebuilding broken ties with European allies.
However, American economic survival still hinges on it military supremacy. With Osama bin Laden still at large, the War on Terror is Barack's alternative to a disastrous Iraq campaign. In this regard, our country remains to be a front of the War against Terror. It is being claimed by the US as a training ground for Islamic militants. Therefore, it is quite sure that defense and military cooperation between our two countries are likely to remain strong. But conflicts in some other part of the world, particularly in the Middle East and Afghanistan, are likely to affect the military grants given to our country. Further, the huge damage which resulted from the Iraq War would cost the US a lot more for its re-construction. Currently, the US government's expenses has drained the national coffers, ballooning the national debt. With the country tied to its commitments to bring sanity in Iraq, the spending would increase resulting to lesser defense aid to other countries, namely the Philippines.
If this is the picture of an Obama White House, where does one place the tiny island republic of the Philippines?
The Philippines is likely to remain a steadfast ally of the United States in the Southeast Asian region, being the only colony that the country has ever had. We are only one in few that maintains a Mutual Defense Treaty with them. We are also one of the first countries that responded to the American call for a War against Terror. That fact made defense cooperation particularly well during the last administration. But since Obama is much more interested in securing a better American future, the development of the economy ranks high on his agenda. Although he vows to stop terrorism, he maintains his focus on problems at home. Therefore, with the War on Terror coming second to President-elect Obama's priorities, we may see a stark contrast to the Bush-style cooperation with President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.
However, Mr. Obama's alleged mistrust of the Chinese would likely place the Philippines at the foreground, as the US has avowed to defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion. The freedom of the South China Sea has always been critical to world trade, as many tonnage of cargo ships pass through these waters. Furthermore, the South China Sea has a huge potential for oil and gas reserves that is critical to US and Asian energy security. China is re-arming its Navy with Russian and Indian made ships to beef up its blue water fleet to expand its influence to the South China Sea area, but it is still weaker than the technologically-superior US 7th Fleet. As such, the Philippines may still be of use to the US in this area and our security against China would still involve American participation.
Also, his foreign policy states his goal of finishing the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban and securing all nuclear weapons and materials from terrorists and rogue states. He also emphasized the need of rebuilding alliances to meet the said challenges of the 21st century. In this regard, the Philippines may still enjoy some level of cooperation from the President-elect.
Overall, the Philippines may not be as important to the United States as we used to enjoy in the past. It has its advantages and disadvantages. But whatever, the situation may be, all are one in an ardent desire that Mr. Barack Hussein Obama II would deliver the vibrant promises that his historic election as President of the United States of America have hoped to bring. Being a man of diverse background, may he lead the world to show true democracy, one that truly exemplifies the concern for the common good of man, and not just the desire to exploit the weaknesses of others.
Congratulations to President Obama!
